Will there be a pilot shortage?

Posted 15 July 2021

“Here we go again”. This is what many experienced pilots think when the “will there be a pilot shortage”- question pops up time and time again.

For those considering the industry (i.e. becoming a pilot), this sounds great that there is a prospect of becoming a part of an industry where you are needed.

The experienced pilots can quickly come across as “old fashioned” and negative by being somewhat sceptical about predictions of a pilot shortage.

But who to believe?

You may recall the report from CAE in 2020 which predicted that there would be a shortage of 27,000 pilots as early as 2021. It caused some debate on social media. Now that we are well into 2021, we can quickly conclude that CAE’s prediction did not come true. There is no shortage of 27,000 pilots in 2021 and there is still a long queue for the few pilot jobs available.

Then in 2021, a new report emerged. Not from CAE but from Oliver Wyman. If you don’t know who or what Oliver Wyman is, they’re an American management consulting firm founded in 1984. They provide advice and analysis for companies and take on projects within the transportation and travel industry.

“After Covid-19, Aviation faces a pilot shortage”

This is the headline of the report from the analysis institute Oliver Wyman. The whole report is built up of arguments, graphs and analysis. Let’s take a closer look at one of the many graphs in the report.

The graph “pilot demand versus supply forecast”, gives us a retrospective confirming that in 2020 there were too many pilots. The reason is also well known since the Covid-19 restrictions meant that the number of flights was significantly reduced. Several airlines went bankrupt and many pilots were either put out of work or sent home on leave etc.

According to the graph, Asia was the hardest hit with about 30,000 too many pilots. Then the US with about 25,000 and Europe (one must assume the grey follows the green graph) also with about 25,000. That leaves about 10,000 in Africa, Latin America and the Middle East. That gives, at a guess, 30,000+25,000+25,000+10,000 = 90,000 pilots too many in 2020. Where this data comes from is not known.

Later, in the same report, one finds a global overview of “pilot demand versus supply”.

The yellow graph indicates the need for pilots. For 2020 we read about 175,000. This means that 175,000 pilots were needed worldwide in 2020. The supply of pilots is the purple graph and for 2020 we read about 310,000. The difference between the two figures (supply and demand) is 310.000- 175.000 giving us a surplus figure of 135.000 pilots.

After that, however, the situation seems to reverse and from 2022 the forecast is that there will not be enough pilots.

The report Covid to limit the global aviation fleet growth over the next 10 years (also by Oliver Wyman) is another interesting read.

If you’ve been in the industry for any length of time, you may have seen reports in the past and you may see a pattern is emerging. But what could be the reasons for reports being wrong?

Why many reports may be wrong

New aircraft = need for more pilots

A typical assumption is that new aircraft from the manufacturer lead to the need for more pilots. That may sound pretty logical the first time you hear it. Often, the new aircraft replace older aircraft. The pilots who fly the older aircraft are trained to fly the new ones. If that is the case, then no new pilots will of course be needed.

Airlines get more and more out of their pilots

When flight time limitations are changed so pilots can legally fly more and schedules are optimised, airlines can get more out of their pilots. Postponing the retirement age also has an impact. When the efficiency of the pilot workforce increases, it obviously means that the need for new pilots does not arise.

The trend towards driverless or single-pilot aircraft

This kind of thing is probably not something we will see in the next few years but if we are talking 10- 20 years then maybe. The biggest obstacle doesn’t seem to be the technology, but more the regulatory rules. Once the regulatory framework is in place, it is easy to imagine that a segment like cargo flying will be quickly affected. It will probably take longer for the technology to come into use in passenger traffic, as many will probably resist at first.

How we travel could change

After 9/11, you saw a change in how people travelled. Many suggested that this was due to fears of something similar occurring. However, some time passed and the desire to travel returned. With Covid-19, it may not be that fear is changing our behaviour but rather the need to travel. Many may be longing for a holiday and the travel industry is reporting a rapid upward trend in sales as soon as travel restrictions are lifted. But what about business travellers? Is there still the same need as before Covid-19 to meet physically for a business meeting? Time will tell if our use of online meetings is just a temporary trend or if it’s here to stay.

It’s hard to predict the unpredictable

We know that the aviation industry is easily affected by economic crises. Predicting how our world is evolving, what new threats, crises are coming is really difficult.

The market is adjusting

MPL and cadet schemes can quickly cover a possible shortfall in an airline. It has been seen before that these schemes can be introduced quickly and unfortunately they can disappear just as quickly. Pilot students in line for jobs in partnership with airlines know all about that. There were also recently some pilot students who got stuck in an MPL adventure.

Unfortunately, as much as one might hope, it will probably never be the case that a newly graduated pilot can pick and choose between pilot jobs. That kind of pilot shortage is really hard to imagine (at least for experienced pilots).

Who is using the predictions to their advantage?

Some of those who particularly use predictions of pilot shortages are the flight schools. We don’t want to single out any schools, so the following schools are not named.

We’re rewinding time to 2012, a time that was tough for aviation in the wake of 9/11. A flight school writes in their information material very convincingly:

“Despite the current economic turmoil in international aviation, analysts, aircraft manufacturers and authorities alike expect a significant increase in the need for pilots over the next 10 years. Independent sources point to a doubling of the number of pilots during this period. At the same time, European countries have adopted a common training model (JAR), which has led to a sharp reduction in the number of approved flight schools. An increasing demand for pilots, coupled with a limited number of training places, obviously creates an advantageous situation for newly qualified pilots.”

Fast forward to 2021, and here is another flight school:

“It is difficult to predict the future but forecasts both within and outside European aviation point to a major expansion of air traffic, and in combination with upcoming very large retirements, there will also be a great need for new recruitment of young qualified pilots in the future. According to forecasts by Boeing and Airbus, 500,000 new pilots will be needed by 2033, a number so large that there are currently not enough training facilities to meet that estimate.”

Has there been a global shortage of pilots?

The short answer is “no”.

From 2012 until now, there has never been a global pilot shortage for newly trained pilots. If there has been a pilot shortage, it has been regional and a shortage of pilots holding a specific experience.

Warning about becoming a pilot

In sharp contrast to the positive predictions about pilot shortages, the UK pilot trade union BALPA made a statement in 2020:

“The pilot’s union, BALPA, has issued a warning to everyone who is thinking about embarking on a pilot training course – think again. BALPA has taken this extraordinary step to help avoid students paying upwards of £100,000 for training only to find there are no jobs available at the end.”

Where is the logic? Some say jump and others say no

To make sense of this mishmash of statements it might be worth being critical of sources.

Many flight schools are private companies. They make their money by training pilots and of course, they have an interest in a steady flow of people wanting to become pilots. Flight schools will (generally) train as many pilots as they have room for regardless of whether there are jobs at the other end or not.

Large regional differences in regard to pilot shortages

It is perhaps worth noting that there can be large regional differences in regard to pilot shortages.

For example:

In Europe, it is possible to go straight from flight school with 200 hours of experience and then into an airline. The same is not possible in the US, for example. Here, regulations prevent you from joining an airline before you have about 1500 hours of experience. This means that in the US, the new graduate has to go out and gain experience in smaller companies. This typically takes 2 – 3 years. This process means that it takes time to “shape” an airline pilot. When the larger airlines in the US suddenly need pilots and there are not enough in the “pipeline” then the pilot shortage quickly occurs.

Before you get the bright idea to simply go to the US to fly, you first need to familiarize yourself with visa regulations and certificate conversion. It is not impossible, but certainly, something that requires some paperwork.

The shortage of jobs often throws newly qualified pilots into adventures abroad. This quickly means that you have to handle many things all at once. To be a pilot today on such adventures often requires one to be an accountant, lawyer, travel specialist, housing agent all at the same time.

Advice for those who are considering becoming a pilot

We certainly don’t think you should give up on the pilot dream. Just make sure your expectations of the industry are realistic.

Right now, it might be worth considering taking another course before taking the pilot course. That way you might have another industry you can temporarily work in, just in case there are no pilot jobs when you graduate.

It is also worth considering taking the pilot modular course. The modular training route allows you to control the pace and work on the side. At a time when getting funding can be difficult, modular training can be a good solution. The modular training route also typically provides a good network that you may be able to draw on later. It may be worth noting that modular training is typically not portrayed very positively by integrated schools. The reasons for this can be many. Our view is that you can become a fantastically skilled pilot whether you are an integrated or modular student. You can also get a job as a pilot whichever route you take. However, if you are training the modular way, it is clear that there is a greater responsibility on the individual to take responsibility for their own training.

If you want to talk to someone about your pilot dreams and you want honest advice about the industry, feel free to write to us.